7.3.2025

The scandal

Two weeks ago we wrote a blog post about a phone call, its dramatic impact on the world order, the collapse of the Western community of values and defense and an orphaned Europe that is unable to defend itself in an emergency. A week ago we published a commentary on the value of security, in which we also expressed criticism of the seeming failure of the short window of opportunity to reform the debt brake in Germany. Immediately afterwards, a scene took place in the Oval Office that sent the entire - Western - world into a state of excitement and sheer horror. In the Eastern world, champagne corks popped in Russia, while the other dictatorships were a little more reserved.

The president of a Ukraine that has been exposed to a Russian war of aggression for three years and is bombarded with rocket attacks on military and civilian targets every day was - after jokes about his clothing - grilled, attacked, humiliated, pressured and blackmailed by the holder of the office of the leader of the free world and his deputy in front of the eyes of the entire world public into agreeing to a dictated and fake peace on the aggressor's terms and an agreement that would secure raw materials for the USA to reimburse military aid provided at a level that was also a lie, without any security guarantees being given that would be essential for a lasting peace. The main means of pressure was the complete and immediate halt to military aid. The Ukrainian president was then expelled from the White House and military aid was subsequently frozen on Monday.

Worldwide reactions

The shocked reactions worldwide to what had happened in terms of moral, global and security policy were immense. The recklessness with which an ally was handed over to a dictator, the openness with which it was made clear that the Western defense community had lost its relevance for the USA, and the naivety with which the Russian dictator was even defended, caused a media earthquake. This was hardly surprising. This press conference added a sad, repulsive and frightening climax to the first weeks of Donald Trump's presidency.

Europe 2.0

What happened in the political landscape in Europe in the following days was almost breathtaking in terms of speed and dimension. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, not necessarily perceived as the most fiery charismatic and head of a United Kingdom that left the EU in 2020, is taking over the leadership of this very EU, receiving Selenskyj on Saturday and leading European heads of government on Sunday in London to work out a peace plan.

On Monday, the leaders of the likely future government coalition in Germany agreed on a special fund of €500 billion and the almost complete removal of defense spending from the debt brake. The whole thing is to be decided in the outgoing Bundestag, as the AfD and the Left can block the whole thing in the new one. For defense, the "whatever it takes" that Mario Draghi promised in 2007 as President of the ECB to save the euro must now apply.

On Tuesday, the President of the European Commission presents a plan that includes a European defence fund of €150 billion for defence and the relaxation of European debt rules through a national exemption clause. This, together with private capital and additional funds for the European Investment Bank, is intended to mobilise almost €800 billion for defence. The proposal was unanimously approved on Thursday.

These are fundamental realignments within a few days that have shown that Europe can quickly reach agreement and act when necessary. Eastern European countries, such as Poland, have already long time ago recognized the need to ensure their own defense. With the British Prime Minister taking over leadership in Europe, rapid new and unconventional constellations have proven possible. This is also shown by the fact that, despite Hungarian President Orban, who has been abusing the unanimity requirement in the EU as a blackmail vehicle for years and has also blocked further European support for Ukraine, a coalition of the willing forged by Keir Starmer has quickly made him irrelevant and enabled ongoing support.

In addition, after years of resentment between the hesitant German and the dynamic French head of government, the approach of the incoming German Chancellor to the French President shows that the German-French engine, which is so important for Europe, is moving again.

Russia has tied up so much power in Ukraine that it is unlikely to attack NATO countries in the next few years. These few years are available to be able to provide security independently. That will be challenging, but it seems that Europe has recognized the situation, is starting to break away from the American fold and is growing up. That is encouraging.