28.2.2025

The challenges

In Munich, Mannheim, Solingen, Magdeburg and Aschaffenburg, 14 people died because migrants, mostly Syrians or Afghans, radicalized by Islamist propaganda on social media, deliberately drove into crowds of people or stabbed people indiscriminately with knives. February 19th marked the fifth anniversary of the attack in Hanau, when a right-wing racist randomly shot dead 9 people with a migrant background. Bollards, concrete blocks and police presence are standard features of Christmas markets. And that costs money.

The issue of migration, whose discussions are struggling to find a reasonable middle ground between the extremes of an all-round carefree package for migrants and integration as the sole responsibility of the public sector on the one hand and calls for rapid deportation and even so-called "remigration" on the other, has gotten completely out of control with its organizational, financial, cultural and emotional effects. Getting this issue back under control will cost money, a lot of money.

Climate change and the environmental disasters it causes also pose a growing threat to security. The costs caused by flooding, flooding caused by heavy rain, heat and drought are estimated to be between €280 and €900 billion by 2050 - in Germany alone. This topic has been completely pushed into the background in public debate at the moment. Counteracting this and even coming close to the EU goal of climate neutrality by 2050 will cost money, a lot of money.

An erratic, purely economicly thinking and nationalistic-egoistic US president is currently dismantling the Western community of values and defense at record speed. Europe, which has had America pay for its security for decades, is suddenly alone, largely militarily empty, and facing a highly armed group of dictatorships that openly live out their imperialist aspirations, smile at democracies and can only be impressed by the harsh language of deterrence. This is not just limited to Eastern Europe. Due to the obligation to provide assistance in the well-known Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, Western Europe will also find itself in a hot war if there is an attack on Finland or the Baltic states, for example, which the US president has made a lot more attractive with his softened commitment. Suddenly orphaned, Europe is faced with the challenge of catching up very quickly in order to be able to defend itself if necessary. That will cost money, a hell of a lot of money.

Coping with them

Security is the basis for peace, prosperity and economic stability and growth. Russia's war of aggression has shown in a brutal way how, without security, these achievements can be lost very quickly. Security cannot be taken for granted. And in order to maintain it, investments are necessary. In order to restore it, very large investments are necessary.

In the current conversations on forming a government in Germany, a reform of the debt brake is being discussed in order to be prepared for these investments. In the upcoming composition of parliament, a blocking minority of the AfD and the Left will most likely make the constitutional amendment required for this impossible. However, the leadership of the CDU/CSU is opposed to a change that is still possible in the current parliament.

Even leading representatives of economic institutes believe that this reform is not only possible, but necessary. Despite all sympathy for budgetary discipline, the investment nature of the necessary funds for security should not be ignored. No one who buys an apartment by taking out a loan or renovates an apartment that needs to be completely renovated by doing so is accused of unsound budgeting. On the contrary, the idea of being able to cover these investments from a current budget seems downright naive after the traffic light government fell apart due to a budget hole of just 5 billion euros, which was a good 1 percent of the budget volume. By missing the short window of opportunity in which reform would still be possible, the new government is paralyzing itself before it has even been formed.

But regardless of the current formation of the German government, the changed security situation will most likely mean cuts and reductions in daily life, further cuts and reductions after the inflation of recent years has already eaten up a lot of purchasing power. At the same time, it must be possible to think that if millions of refugees are trying to get to Europe - sometimes risking their lives - then life here cannot be as hard and bad as it is sometimes perceived and portrayed. Nobody likes going backwards, but the choice will probably be between a smaller step backwards now and a bigger step backwards tomorrow.